AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market News and Commentary

December 17, 2018

Corn futures are trading fractionally higher to start the week. They ended the Friday session with most contracts steady to 1/2 cent higher, as Dec expired at $3.76 3/4. US corn Export Commitments are now 44% of the USDA projection, with the normal pace running 49%. CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report indicated that money managers in corn futures and options held a net long position of 98,617 contracts as of Tuesday, a move of +44,872 contract on the week. Argentina’s corn crop is estimated at 46.7% planted, lagging the 53.8% average pace according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. China’s NBS reduced estimated 2018 corn production to 257.3 MMT, down 1.7 MMT for them. USDA is already at 256 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Market News and Commentary

December 17, 2018

Soybean futures are mostly 3 cents per bushel higher this morning. They closed Friday with losses of 6 to 6 3/4 cents, despite another export sale to China. Dec soy meal expired at $309.40/ton, with soy oil at 28.39 cents/lb. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday afternoon showed specs in soybean futures and options trimming their net short position by 6,525 contracts as of 12/11 to -11,068 contracts. Analysts estimated today’s NOPA report will show 168.44 mbu of soybeans crushed by its members during November. Soy oil stocks are projected to total 1.503 billion pounds on average. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that 68.8% of the Argentine soybean crop is planted, above the 66.9% average pace. They also pegged the initial conditions at 19.1% gd/ex, vs. 49.3% gd/ex last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market News and Commentary

December 17, 2018

Wheat futures are currently 2 to 5 cents higher, with Minneapolis HRS weaker than the other two markets. Wheat was a penny to 6 cents lower in most contracts on Friday. Wheat 18/19 export commitments are now just 9.5% behind this time last year. They are now 60% of USDA’s newly updated projection of 1 bbu, with the normal pace at 77% for this date. Spec funds in KC wheat futures and options flipped 4,874 contracts as of Wednesday to get back to a CFTC net long position of 2,429 contracts. They trimmed 6,005 contracts from their net short position in CBT wheat to take it to -22,402 contracts. Russia’s ag ministry estimates that the country’s 18/19 wheat crop totaled 70 MMT. BAGE estimates that Argentina’s wheat crop is now 75.2% mature, with harvest even with the average pace at 57.4%. They put condition @ 35.8% good/ex, compared to 63.9% good/ex last year. The production estimate was lowered to 19.0 MMT from 19.2 MMT.

Cattle Market News and Commentary

December 17, 2018

Live cattle futures settled with most contracts steady to 45 cents lower on Friday. Nearby Dec was up 12.5 cents as it has to stick close to cash. Feeder cattle futures were 10 to 40 cents lower on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was up 51 cents on December 13 at $146.91. Wholesale beef prices were mixed this afternoon, with the Ch/Select spread narrowing to $7.82. Choice boxes were down $1.51 at $210.96, with the Select cutout value $2.14 higher at $203.14. USDA estimated this week’s cattle slaughter at 654,00 head through Saturday. That is 7,000 below last week and 26,000 head larger than the same week last year. Most cash cattle trade on Friday was around $119 to round out the week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market News and Commentary

December 17, 2018

Lean Hog futures were mixed on Friday, with Dec expiring at $54.95. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 18 cents from the previous day @ $55.36 on December 12. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.37 at $71.80. The national base cash hog carcass value was 29 cents higher at a weighted average of $46.71. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for last week at 2.612 million head. That was 54,000 head larger than the previous week and 36,000 head above a year ago. Spec funds in lean hog futures and options backed off their CFTC net long position by 3,563 contracts as of 12/11 to a net position of 35,506 contracts.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market News and Commentary

December 17, 2018

Cotton futures are trading 6 to 17 points lower this morning. They saw 19 to 32 point gains on Friday. Cotton commitments for export are now lagging a year ago by 2.5%. Compared to the USDA projected 15 million bales, they are 71% of that number vs. the 62% average for early December. Money managers in cotton futures and options added a net of just 85 contracts to their net long position in the week ending Dec 11, taking it to 38,187 contracts. The Cotlook A index was down 5 points from the previous day on Dec 13 at 88.25 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 69.77, good through Thursday and up 43 points from the previous week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com